The Sane Investor

May 19th, 2009

So I had moved out of the double long S&P, and in to a double short financials, with the expectation that if we were heading down, financials were going to be leading us there.  Financials led the way alright.  All the way up.  The expectation on my part was also that a lot of the commercial debt, and credit card debt out there is a ticking time bomb.  By this, what I mean is that although things aren’t getting worse as fast as they were before, the longer they go without getting better, the more likely defaults from businesses and individual consumers.

I still don’t understand how housing starts are up, but then again I’m not in that industry.  Maybe the expectation is that now things are going to rally, and if that’s the case then now’s a great time to start building.  But just last night, we were watching the news and they were talking about how many ghost town-like suburbs are popping up in southern California.  If that’s the case, why on earth would you be building? (more…)

May 13th, 2009

I thought I had called it so well two days ago when I cashed out of my defensive silver and Phillip Morris International (NYSE: PM) positions and moved them in to a double long S&P 500 etf. My goal, was to wait and see what oil was going to do, and when the time was right get in to USL and a double long XLE energy producers, hopefully netting a nice little profit off the S&P. I wanted to park my cash in something in the interim since inflation concerns were increasing and the dollar was getting crushed. I’ve had inner bullish sentiments on crude for such a long time, I felt like we were really about to enter the price adjustment that really should happen for crude, pushing it above $60 a barrel and potentially up to $70. I was just waiting for the point where I thought it would happen again after I got burned going long crude during the summer. (more…)

April 13th, 2009

To read the comic, click here.

So I decided to run with the comedics a little while longer.  Today’s comic is in response to a recent announcement by HSBC that they are going to try and sell three of their landmark buildings and raise additional capital through the sale of shares.  A recapitilization attempt that doesn’t involve going straight to the government should always be encouraged over lining up for government handouts.  I personally feel that the government should only have a role if all other alternatives have been exhausted, and it sounds like HSBC isn’t there yet. (more…)